Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Market
57 Pages Posted: 1 Mar 2005
Date Written: February 2005
Abstract
We analyze the role private and public information play in the U.S. Treasury bond price discovery process. To guide our analysis, we develop a parsimonious model of speculative trading in the presence of two realistic market frictions, information heterogeneity and imperfect competition among informed traders. We test its equilibrium implications by studying the response of 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year U.S. bond yields to order flow and real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Consistent with the stylized model, we find that unanticipated order flow explains a bigger portion of bond yield changes when the dispersion of beliefs across informed traders is high and public announcements are noisy.
Keywords: Macroeconomic news announcements, strategic trading, market microstructure, order flow, real-time data, expectations, dispersion of beliefs
JEL Classification: E44, G14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange
By Clara Vega, Torben G. Andersen, ...
-
Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange
By Torben G. Andersen, Clara Vega, ...
-
By Torben G. Andersen and Tim Bollerslev
-
Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market
-
Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information