The Us Economy from 1992 to 1998: Historical and Decomposition Simulations with the Usage Model

47 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2005

See all articles by Peter B. Dixon

Peter B. Dixon

Monash University - Centre of Policy Studies

Maureen T. Rimmer

Monash University - Centre of Policy Studies

Date Written: January 2004

Abstract

USAGE is a 500 industry dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the US economy being developed at Monash University in collaboration with the US International Trade Commission. In common with the MONASH model of Australia, USAGE is designed for four modes of analysis: Historical, where we estimate changes in technology and consumer preferences; Decomposition, where we explain periods of economic history in terms of driving factors such as changes in technology and consumer preferences; Forecast, where we derive basecase forecasts for industries, occupations and regions that are consistent with trends from historical simulations and with available expert opinions; and Policy, where we derive deviations from basecase forecast paths caused by assumed policies. This paper reports our first set of historical and decomposition results. The historical results quantify several aspects of technical change in US industries for the period 1992 to 1998 including: intermediate-input-saving technical change; primary-factor-saving technical change; labor-capital bias in technical change; and import domestic bias in technical change. The historical results also quantify shifts in consumer preferences between commodities. The decomposition results are applied in illustrative analyses of growth in US international trade between 1992 and 1998 and of growth in the US steel industry for this period.

Keywords: US economy, USAGE model, decomposition simulations

Suggested Citation

Dixon, Peter B. and Rimmer, Maureen T., The Us Economy from 1992 to 1998: Historical and Decomposition Simulations with the Usage Model (January 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=734244 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.734244

Peter B. Dixon (Contact Author)

Monash University - Centre of Policy Studies ( email )

Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia
+61 3 990 52398 (Phone)

Maureen T. Rimmer

Monash University - Centre of Policy Studies ( email )

Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia
+61 3 990 55464 (Phone)

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