Momentum Profits and Macroeconomic Risk
28 Pages Posted: 18 Aug 2005 Last revised: 14 Nov 2022
Date Written: July 2005
Abstract
Previous work shows that the growth rate of industrial production is a common macroeconomic risk factor in the cross-section of expected returns. We demonstrate the connection between momentum profits and shifts in factor loadings on this macroeconomic variable. Winners have temporarily higher loadings on the growth rate of industrial production than losers. The loading dispersion derives mostly from the high, positive loadings of winners. Depending on model specification, this loading dispersion can explain up to 40% of momentum profits.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
By Nicholas Barberis, Andrei Shleifer, ...
-
A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets
By Harrison G. Hong and Jeremy C. Stein
-
By Louis K.c. Chan, Narasimhan Jegadeesh, ...
-
Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies
By Harrison G. Hong, Terence Lim, ...
-
Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations
-
Profitability of Momentum Strategies: an Evaluation of Alternative Explanations
-
When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?
By Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig Mackinlay