Global Impacts of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios on Poverty

38 Pages Posted: 14 Oct 2005

See all articles by Kym Anderson

Kym Anderson

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University

Will J. Martin

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

World Bank

Date Written: October 2005

Abstract

This paper illustrates some of the potential consequences of the WTO's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, we estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.

Keywords: Trade policy reform, computable general equilibrium modeling, poverty alleviation

JEL Classification: C68, D58, F17, Q17

Suggested Citation

Anderson, Kym and Martin, William J. and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, Global Impacts of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios on Poverty (October 2005). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3735, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=822879

Kym Anderson (Contact Author)

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES) ( email )

School of Economics
Adelaide SA 5005
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)
+61 8 8223 1460 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Australian National University ( email )

Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics
Coombs Building
Canberra, AK ACT 2600
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://publicpolicy.anu.edu.au/crawford_people/content/staff/acde/kanderson.php

William J. Martin

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-0052 (Phone)
202-522-1159 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/dvandermensbrugghe

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