Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?
Resources for the Future Discussion Paper No. 05-53
35 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2006
Date Written: November 2005
Abstract
Understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation. I evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge. I find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88-country global sample over 1960-2000. Forecasts based on a Markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term. I also review the shortcomings of environmental Kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions.
Keywords: Emissions distributions, environmental Kuznets curve, Markov transition matrix
JEL Classification: O40, Q54, Q56
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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