Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?

Resources for the Future Discussion Paper No. 05-53

35 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2006

See all articles by Joseph E. Aldy

Joseph E. Aldy

Harvard Kennedy School; National Bureau of Economic Research; Resources for the Future; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Date Written: November 2005

Abstract

Understanding and considering the distribution of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is important in designing international climate change proposals and incentives for participation. I evaluate historic international emissions distributions and forecast future distributions to assess whether per capita emissions have been converging or will converge. I find evidence of convergence among 23 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), whereas emissions appear to be diverging for an 88-country global sample over 1960-2000. Forecasts based on a Markov chain transition matrix provide little evidence of future emissions convergence and indicate that emissions may diverge in the near term. I also review the shortcomings of environmental Kuznets curve regressions and structural models in characterizing future emissions distributions.

Keywords: Emissions distributions, environmental Kuznets curve, Markov transition matrix

JEL Classification: O40, Q54, Q56

Suggested Citation

Aldy, Joseph E., Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence? (November 2005). Resources for the Future Discussion Paper No. 05-53, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=881086 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.881086

Joseph E. Aldy (Contact Author)

Harvard Kennedy School

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HOME PAGE: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/about/faculty-staff-directory/joseph-aldy

National Bureau of Economic Research

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Resources for the Future

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HOME PAGE: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/about/faculty-staff-directory/joseph-aldy

Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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