Does Firm Value Move Too Much to Be Justified By Subsequent Changes in Cash Flow?

Abstract

The appropriate measure of cash flow for valuing corporate assets is net payout, which is the sum of dividends, interest, and net repurchases of equity and debt. Variation in net payout yield, the ratio of net payout to asset value, is mostly driven by movements in expected cash flow growth, instead of movements in discount rates. Net payout yield is less persistent than dividend yield and implies much smaller variation in long-horizon discount rates. Therefore, movements in the value of corporate assets can be justified by changes in expected future cash flow.

Keywords: Asset valuation, Excess volatility, Payout policy, Valuation ratio

JEL Classification: G12, G32, G35