Default Risk, Shareholder Advantage, and Stock Returns*

56 Pages Posted: 7 Apr 2006

See all articles by Lorenzo Garlappi

Lorenzo Garlappi

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Sauder School of Business

Tao Shu

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - CUHK Business School

Hong Yan

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF)

Date Written: March 2006

Abstract

In this paper, we study the relationship between default probability and stock returns. Using the market-based measure of Expected Default Frequency* (EDF) constructed by Moody's KVM, we first demonstrate that higher default probabilities are not necessarily associated with higher expected stock returns, a finding that complements the existing empirical evidence. We then show that the puzzling and complex relationship between stock returns and default probability is consistent with the implications of existing structural models that account for possible negotiated benefits for equity-holders upon default. Adapting the setting of the Fan and Sundarasan (2000) model that explicitly considers the bargaining game between equity-holders and debt-holders in default probability that resembles the empirically observed pattern. Our analysis indicated that, depending on the level of shareholder advantage, the relationship advantage, the relationship between default probability and equity return may be either upward sloping (low shareholder advantage) or humped and downward sloping (high shareholder advantage). Moreover, we show that distressed firms in which shareholders have a stronger advantage in renegotiation exhibit lower expected returns, and that their default probabilities do not adequately represent the risk of default born by equity. We test these implications using several proxies for shareholder advantage and find strong support in the data.

Keywords: Default Risk, Stock Returns, Debt Renegotiatin, Bankruptcy, Liquidation

JEL Classification: G12, G14

Suggested Citation

Garlappi, Lorenzo and Shu, Tao and Yan, Hong, Default Risk, Shareholder Advantage, and Stock Returns* (March 2006). 8th Annual Texas Finance Festival , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=895729 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.895729

Lorenzo Garlappi (Contact Author)

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Sauder School of Business ( email )

2053 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2
Canada

Tao Shu

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - CUHK Business School ( email )

Cheng Yu Tung Building
12 Chak Cheung Street
Shatin, N.T.
Hong Kong

Hong Yan

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF) ( email )

Shanghai Jiao Tong University
211 West Huaihai Road
Shanghai, 200030
China