How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources
35 Pages Posted: 13 Nov 2006
Date Written: October 2006
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to quantify the relationship between the global economic environment and the number of Stand-By Arrangements (SBAs). The results suggest that oil prices, world interest rates, and the global business cycle are the most influential indicators that affect the number of SBAs being requested. In addition, the empirical model seems to have reasonable accuracy when predicting SBAs. Furthermore, when oil prices, interest rates, and the global business cycle are adversely shocked by one standard deviation, the conditional probability of a SBA nearly doubles, implying an increase from about six to 12 SBAs. More critically, the model suggests that even a steady deterioration of the global economic climate would imply increasingly harsher conditions for developing and emerging market countries which may in turn significantly increase the demand for IMF resources.
JEL Classification: F01, F33, F34, F42
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What are the Effects?
By Robert J. Barro and Jong-wha Lee
-
Economic Determinants of Fund Financial Arrangements
By Malcolm Knight and Julio A. Santaella
-
Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?
By Timothy Lane and Steven Phillips
-
Does the IMF Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data
By Axel Dreher and Roland Vaubel
-
The Macroeconomic Effects of Fund-Supported Adjustment Programs: An Empirical Assessment
-
Conditionality and Ownership in IMF Lending: A Political Economy Approach
By Allan Drazen
-
Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries and the Hipc Initiative
By Anthony Boote and Kamau Thugge