Fiscal Balance Forecast of Cambodia 2007-2011

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to forecast the fiscal balance of Cambodia in years 2007-2011, based on the revenue and expenditure data since the political stabilization which started in 1993. Major tool for the analysis is OLS, and the huge deficit is forecasted. To cover the deficit, Cambodian government should issue government bond, which is not an easy task considering the development stage of her bond markets. A few policy recommendations on its development will be given.

Keywords: Tax Revnue, Fiscal Expenditure, Budget Deficit, Revenue Elasticity

JEL Classification: H20, H50, H62, H63