What to Do Next? The Case for Non-Predictive Strategy

Abstract

Two prescriptions dominate the topic of what firms should do next in uncertain situations; planning approaches and adaptive approaches. These differ primarily on the appropriate role of prediction in the decision process. Prediction is a central issue in strategy making due to the presumption that what can be predicted can be controlled. In this paper we argue for the independence of prediction and control, that the pursuit of successful outcomes can occur through either predictive or control oriented approaches. We further develop and highlight control oriented approaches to open new avenues for dealing with the uncertainty inherent to the question of what organizations should do next. These approaches significantly impact the costs and risk of firm strategy as well as their innovative efforts.

Keywords: Strategy Making, Uncertainty, Decision Making, Market Creation, Construction, Effectuation