Thin Slices of Negotiation: Predicting Outcomes from Conversational Dynamics Within the First Five Minutes

Abstract

In this research we examine whether conversational dynamics occurring within the first five minutes of a negotiation can predict negotiated outcomes. In a simulated employment negotiation, micro-coding conducted by a computer showed that activity level, conversational engagement, prosodic emphasis, and vocal mirroring predicted 30% of the variance in individual outcomes. The conversational dynamics associated with individual success among high-status parties were different from those associated with individual success among low-status parties. Results are interpreted in light of theory and research exploring the predictive power of "thin slices" (Ambady & Rosenthal, 1992). Implications include the development of new technology to diagnose and improve negotiation processes.

Keywords: Negotiation, thin slices, conversational dynamics, speech features, nonverbal, communication, artificial intelligence