The Effects of Sentencing on Recidivism: Results from a Natural Experiment
20 Pages Posted: 10 Jul 2007
Date Written: July 5, 2007
Abstract
Although defendants who are sentenced to prison are known to re-offend at higher rates than defendants who are not sentenced to prison, this correlation does not have a clear causal interpretation because variation in sentencing in part reflects variation the defendants' perceived criminal propensities. Taking advantage of the random assignment of judges to criminal cases, we analyze a natural experiment in which defendants are effectively sentenced at random. We estimate the effects of conviction and incarceration on the probability that 10,814 defendants who appeared in the Superior Court for the District of Columbia between 1978 and 1984 were recharged or reconvicted during a 13-year follow-up period. We find little evidence that incarceration reduces the probability of recidivism, as would be expected based on "specific deterrence" and "incapacitation" hypotheses.
Keywords: criminal justice, sentencing, recidivism, experiment
JEL Classification: C93, K14, K4
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation