Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific

Abstract

This working paper was written by Mark Crosby (University of Melbourne).

In this paper business cycle correlations between countries in the Asia-Pacific region are examined. A number of authors have suggested that trade intensity between pairs of countries increases business cycle synchronisation, though theoretically it is not clear that this should be the case. In this paper trade intensity and a number of other macroeconomic and structural variables are used to try and explain synchronisation. Our findings suggest that trade does not explain correlations in the Asia-Pacific region.