The Cyclical Behaviour of Job and Worker Flows

Abstract

This research exploits a large employer-level panel dataset in order to analyse employment and worker flows. Excess reallocation, the difference between worker and job flows at the firm level, is substantial and has a definite cyclical pattern.

Both accessions and separations are cyclical in contrast to the conventional wisdom that assumes separation to be countercyclical. Separations increase in upswing, following the accession increase, and decline in recession. Unemployment during recession is not, to a large extent, due to an increase in the rate at which workers separate from their employers, as traditionally assumed among macroeconomists, but to the decline in job creations.

Keywords: Job Flows, Worker Flows, Reallocation, Cyclical behaviour

JEL Classification: E24, E32, J21, J44