A Model of Asset Pricing under Country Risk
49 Pages Posted: 17 Mar 2008 Last revised: 29 Jan 2009
Date Written: October 1, 2008
Abstract
I develop a formal model that could provide quantitative guidance to practitioners who use sovereign yield spreads in emerging market asset valuation. The model provides closed-form formulas relating emerging market stock P/E ratios (and expected returns) to the corresponding average yield spread in sovereign bonds. In the model, sovereign yield spreads carry information about the likelihood of a negative regime change in an emerging market ("country risk"), under the common assumption that the regime change is associated with a hostile renegotiation of the country's foreign debt. In the model, country risk is priced because the regime change may be endogenously associated with bad states of the global economy. Data from emerging markets are consistent with some of the model's quantitative and qualitative predictions.
Keywords: sovereign spread, asset pricing, emerging market discount
JEL Classification: F21, F34, G12, G15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Time-Varying World Market Integration
By Geert Bekaert and Campbell R. Harvey
-
Time-Varying World Market Integration
By Geert Bekaert and Campbell R. Harvey
-
Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets
By Geert Bekaert and Campbell R. Harvey
-
Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets
By Geert Bekaert and Campbell R. Harvey
-
The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk
By Bernard Dumas and Bruno Solnik
-
Emerging Equity Market Volatility
By Geert Bekaert and Campbell R. Harvey
-
Emerging Equity Market Volatility
By Geert Bekaert and Campbell R. Harvey
-
Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets
By Geert Bekaert and Robert J. Hodrick