Transition and the Output Fall

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1636

Posted: 11 Jul 1997

See all articles by Gérard Roland

Gérard Roland

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Thierry Verdier

Paris School of Economics (PSE); Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Date Written: May 1997

Abstract

This paper presents a model that explains why in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe an important output fall has been associated with price liberalization. Its key ingredients are search frictions and Williamsonian relation-specific investment implying that new investments are made only after a new long-term partner has been found. When all firms search for new partners, output may fall because of three effects: a) disruption of previous production links; b) a fall in investment; and c) capital depreciation due to the absence of replacement investment. We show that forms of gradual liberalization like the Chinese 'dual-track' price liberalization may avoid or reduce the transitory output fall.

JEL Classification: D21, D50, E30, E61, P41, P51

Suggested Citation

Roland, Gérard and Verdier, Thierry, Transition and the Output Fall (May 1997). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1636, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=11064

Gérard Roland (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics ( email )

549 Evans Hall #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
United States
510-642-4321 (Phone)
510-642-6615 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Thierry Verdier

Paris School of Economics (PSE) ( email )

48 Boulevard Jourdan
Paris, 75014
France

Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) - Department of Economics ( email )

Rua Marques de Sao Vicente, 225/206F
Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22453
Brazil

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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