Time Varying Correlations between Stock and Bond Returns - Evidence from Russia

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to look at the relationship between stock market and bond market of Russia for the period of July 1994 to Dec. 2007. We attempt to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. We start our investigation by applying Bollerslev (1990) Constant conditional correlation model to test whether varying correlations are statistically significant then we use DCC-GARCH (1, 1) model proposed by Engle (2002) to analyze the dynamics of conditional correlations between the two assets. Finally, to investigate the asymmetries in conditional variances, covariances, and correlations, we adopt an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) model proposed by Engle et al. (2006). Our empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and we found clear evidence of time varying correlations between Russian stocks and bond market. Our results offers a batter understanding for the dynamics of the correlations between stocks and bonds in an emerging market setting which is obviously very valuable for the portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers as well as for the policy implications.

Keywords: Multivariate GARCH, CCC, DCC, ADCC, correlations, stock, bond

JEL Classification: C32, G15