A Simple Model of the Juggernaut Effect of Trade Liberalisation

20 Pages Posted: 9 Jun 2008

See all articles by Richard E. Baldwin

Richard E. Baldwin

University of Geneva - Graduate Institute of International Studies (HEI); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Frederic Robert-Nicoud

University of Geneva - Department of Political Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: December 2007

Abstract

This paper posits a formal political economy model where the principle of reciprocity in multilateral trade talks results in the gradual elimination of tariffs. Reciprocity trade talks turn each nation's exporters into anti-protectionists at home; they lower foreign tariffs by convincing their own government to lower home tariffs. Due to the new array of political forces, each government finds it politically optimal to remove tariffs that it previously found politically optimal to impose. The one-off global tariff cut then reshapes the political economy landscape via entry and exit - reducing the size/influence of import-competing sectors and increasing that of exporters. In the next round of trade talks governments therefore find it politically optimal to cut tariffs again. The process may continue until tariffs are eliminated.

Keywords: Lobbying, Multilateral Trade Negotiations

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Baldwin, Richard E. and Robert-Nicoud, Frederic L., A Simple Model of the Juggernaut Effect of Trade Liberalisation (December 2007). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6607, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1140536

Richard E. Baldwin (Contact Author)

University of Geneva - Graduate Institute of International Studies (HEI) ( email )

PO Box 136
Geneva, CH-1211
Switzerland
+41 22 908 5933 (Phone)
+41 22 733 3049 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.hei.unige.ch/~baldwin/

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Frederic L. Robert-Nicoud

University of Geneva - Department of Political Economics ( email )

40, boulevard du Pont-d'Arve
Geneva 4, CH-1211
Switzerland
+41 22 379 8272 (Phone)
+41 22 379 8293 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.unige.ch/ses/ecopo/staff/robert/home.html

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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