Extremism and Social Learning

Journal of Legal Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2009

Harvard Public Law Working Paper No. 08-14

64 Pages Posted: 24 Jun 2008 Last revised: 1 Aug 2014

See all articles by Edward L. Glaeser

Edward L. Glaeser

Harvard University - Department of Economics; Brookings Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Cass R. Sunstein

Harvard Law School; Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 19, 2007

Abstract

When members of deliberating groups speak with one another, their predeliberation tendencies often become exacerbated as their views become more extreme. The resulting phenomenon-group polarization-has been observed in many settings, and it bears on the actions of juries, administrative tribunals, corporate boards, and other institutions. Polarization can result from rational Bayesian updating by group members, but in many contexts, this rational interpretation of polarization seems implausible. We argue that people are better seen as Credulous Bayesians, who insufficiently adjust for idiosyncratic features of particular environments and put excessive weight on the statements of others in situations of (1) common sources of information; (2) highly unrepresentative group membership; (3) statements that are made to obtain approval; and (4) statements that are designed to manipulate. Credulous Bayesianism can produce extremism and significant blunders-the folly of crowds. We discuss the implications of Credulous Bayesianism for law and politics, including media policy and cognitive diversity on administrative agencies and courts.

Keywords: polarization, bayesians, behavior, credulous bayesianism, legal theory

JEL Classification: K00

Suggested Citation

Glaeser, Edward L. and Sunstein, Cass R., Extremism and Social Learning (June 19, 2007). Journal of Legal Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2009, Harvard Public Law Working Paper No. 08-14, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1150411

Edward L. Glaeser

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

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