Party Competition and Media Messages in U. S. Presidential Elections

21 Pages Posted: 7 Jul 2008

See all articles by Andrew Gelman

Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science

Gary King

Harvard University

Abstract

At one point during the 1988 campaign, Michael Dukakis was ahead in the public opinion polls by 17 percentage points, but he eventually lost the election by 8 percent. Walter Mondale was ahead in the polls by 4 percent during the 1984 campaign but lost the election in a landslide. During June and July of 1992, Clinton, Bush, and Perot each had turns in the public opinion poll lead.

Suggested Citation

Gelman, Andrew and King, Gary, Party Competition and Media Messages in U. S. Presidential Elections. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1156471 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1156471

Andrew Gelman

Columbia University - Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science ( email )

New York, NY 10027
United States
212-854-4883 (Phone)
212-663-2454 (Fax)

Gary King (Contact Author)

Harvard University ( email )

1737 Cambridge St.
Institute for Quantitative Social Science
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
617-500-7570 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://gking.harvard.edu

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