Uncertainty Resolution and Strategic Trade Policy in Oligopolistic Industries

Abstract

This paper investigates a government's choice of strategic trade policy when the domestic firm observes a private noisy signal about the stochastic market demand while in competition with a rival firm. The government chooses between quantity controls and subsidies to maximize profits of the domestic firm. Assuming that firms compete a la Cournot in a third country, we show that the optimal trade policy depends not only on demand uncertainty but also on the predictability of the true market demand by the firms.

JEL Classification: F12