International House Prices and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Posted: 18 Sep 2008 Last revised: 9 Jun 2013
Date Written: September 16, 2008
Abstract
The paper investigates linkages between general macroeconomic conditions and the housing market for the G-7 area. Among the key results of the paper, it is found that the US are an important source of global fluctuations not only for real activity, nominal variables and stock prices, but also for housing prices. Yet, also regional factors may be relevant to account for house prices dynamics. Secondly, albeit distinct driving forces for real activity and financial factors can be pointed out, sizeable global interactions can be found. In particular, global supply-side shocks are found to be important determinant of G-7 house prices fluctuations. The linkage between housing prices and macroeconomic developments is however bidirectional, since evidence of significant wealth effects can be found, with investment showing in general a stronger reaction than consumption and output.
Keywords: G-7, house prices, international business cycle, factor vector autoregressive models, common factors
JEL Classification: C22, E31, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) ( email )
Piazza dell'Ateneo Nuovo, 1
Milan, 20126
Italy