Probability Judgment Accuracy for General Knowledge: Cross-National Differences and Assessment Methods

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 8, pp. 51-67, 1995

Posted: 23 Nov 2008

See all articles by Kathleen M. Whitcomb

Kathleen M. Whitcomb

University of South Carolina - Department of Management

Shawn P. Curley

affiliation not provided to SSRN

George S. Benson

University of Texas at Arlington

Dilek Onkal

Bilkent University

Date Written: 1995

Abstract

ln this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed - numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two-alternative. general-knowledge items. The observed pattern of differences in the components of probability judgment accuracy paralleled those of studies that have compared Western and Asian subjects. In particular, Turkish subjects exhibited better discrimination but worse calibration than their US counterparts. This result persisted across all three response modes. These findings lend support to previous assertions that observed crossnational differences arise from socioeconomic rather than Asian versus Western cultural differences. However, the consistency of the observed differences across response modes refutes a previous assertion that observed cultural differences are merely the result of response bias.

Keywords: Probability assessment, Subjective probabilities, Cross-cultural comparison

Suggested Citation

Whitcomb, Kathleen M. and Curley, Shawn P. and Benson, George S. and Onkal, Dilek, Probability Judgment Accuracy for General Knowledge: Cross-National Differences and Assessment Methods (1995). Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 8, pp. 51-67, 1995, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1298552

Kathleen M. Whitcomb

University of South Carolina - Department of Management ( email )

United States

Shawn P. Curley

affiliation not provided to SSRN

George S. Benson

University of Texas at Arlington ( email )

415 S West St Apt no 205
Arlington, TX 76019
United States

Dilek Onkal (Contact Author)

Bilkent University ( email )

Bilkent University
Faculty of Business Administration
Bilkent, Ankara 06800
Turkey
+90.312.290.1596 (Phone)

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