Leverage Cycle and the Anxious Economy

Abstract

We provide a pricing theory for emerging asset classes, like emerging markets, that are not yet mature enough to be attractive to the general public. We show how leverage cycles can cause contagion, f!ight to collateral, and issuance rationing in a frequently recurring phase we call the anxious economy. Our model provides an explanation for the volatile access of emerging economies to international financial markets, and for three stylized facts we identify in emerging markets and high yield data since the late 1990s. Our analytical framework is a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, incomplete markets, and endogenous collateral, plus an extension encompassing adverse selection.

Keywords: Anxious Economy, Leverage Cycle, Liquidity Wedge, Emerging Assets, Market Closures, Emerging Markets, US High Yield, Collateral Value, Contagion, Flight to Collateral, Issuance Rationing

JEL Classification: D53, G12, G14, G15