Government Transfers and Political Support
48 Pages Posted: 17 Feb 2009 Last revised: 4 Sep 2022
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Government Transfers and Political Support
Government Transfers and Political Support
Date Written: February 2009
Abstract
We estimate the impact of a large anti-poverty cash transfer program, the Uruguayan PANES, on political support for the government that implemented it. Using the discontinuity in program assignment based on a pre-treatment eligibility score, we find that beneficiary households are 11 to 14 percentage points more likely to favor the current government relative to the previous government. Political support effects persist after the program ends. A calibration exercise indicates that these persistent impacts are consistent with a model of rational but poorly informed voters learning about politicians' redistributive preferences.
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