Is Housing the Business Cycle? Evidence from U.S. Cities
Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 67, No. 3, 2010
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper No.2009-007B
38 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2009 Last revised: 24 Nov 2011
Date Written: July 23, 2009
Abstract
We analyze the relationship between housing and the business cycle in a set of 51 U.S. cities. Most surprisingly, we find that declines in house prices are often not followed by declines in employment. We also find that national permits are a better leading indicator for a city’s employment than a city’s own permits.
Keywords: local housing markets, residential investment, economic fluctuations, housing prices
JEL Classification: C32, E32, R11
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Monetary Policy and the U.S. Housing Market: A VAR Analysis Imposing Sign Restrictions
-
Housing, Consumption and Monetary Policy: How Different are the U.S. And the Euro Area?
By Alberto Musso, Stefano Neri, ...
-
Does Housing Really Lead the Business Cycle?
By Luis J. Álvarez and Alberto Cabrero
-
Three Cycles: Housing, Credit, and Real Activity
By Deniz Igan, Alain Kabundi, ...
-
Housing Cycles in the Major Euro Area Countries
By Luis J. Álvarez, Guido Bulligan, ...
-
Common Business and Housing Market Cycles in the Euro Area from a Multivariate Decomposition
By Laurent Ferrara and Siem Jan Koopman
-
Cyclical Relationships Between GDP and Housing Market in France: Facts and Factors at Play
By Olivier Vigna and Laurent Ferrara
-
Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model
By Rangan Gupta, Marius Jurgilas, ...
-
Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamic
By Rangan Gupta, Stephen M. Miller, ...
-
The Changing Role of House Price Dynamics Over the Business Cycle
By Gilles Dufrénot and Sheheryar Malik