Estimating the Impact of Avian Flu on International Tourism Demand Using Panel Data

20 Pages Posted: 19 Mar 2009

See all articles by Hsiao-I Kuo

Hsiao-I Kuo

Chaoyang University of Technology

Chia-Lin Chang

National Chung Hsing University - Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance

Chi-Chung Chen

National Chung Hsing University

Biing-Wen Huang

National Chung Hsing University - Department of Applied Economics

Michael McAleer

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute; Tinbergen Institute; University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Date Written: March 19, 2009

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of Avian Flu on global and Asian tourism using panel data procedures. Both static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are adopted to estimate the impacts of this infectious disease. The empirical results from static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are consistent and indicate that the numbers of affected poultry outbreaks have significant impacts on international tourism of global and Asian affected countries. The high mortality rate among humans, the potential of a global flu pandemic, and some media frenzy with hype and speculation might adversely affect the images of these infected destinations as a safe tourist destination. Moreover, it is found that the average damage to Asian tourism was more serious, which might be induced by an ineffective suppression in numerous Asian infected countries. In addition, Asia was the earliest affected region, and the area infected most seriously by Avian Flu, both in humans and in poultry. Since the potential risks and damage arising from Avian Flu and the subsequent pandemic influenza is much greater than for previous diseases, the need to take necessary precautions in the event of an outbreak of Avian Flu and pandemic influenza warrants further attention and action in modeling and managing international tourism demand and risk.

Keywords: Avian Flu, International Tourist Demand, Dynamic Panel Data Model, Fixed Effects

JEL Classification: C23, L83

Suggested Citation

Kuo, Hsiao-I and Chang, Chia-Lin and Chen, Chi-Chung and Huang, Biing-Wen and McAleer, Michael, Estimating the Impact of Avian Flu on International Tourism Demand Using Panel Data (March 19, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1365228 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1365228

Hsiao-I Kuo

Chaoyang University of Technology

No. 168, Jifong E. Rd., Wufong Township
Taichung County, Taiwan 41349
Taiwan

Chia-Lin Chang (Contact Author)

National Chung Hsing University - Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance ( email )

Taichung, Taiwan
China

Chi-Chung Chen

National Chung Hsing University

402, No. 250 Kuo Kuang Road, Taiwan
Taichung, Taiwan
China

Biing-Wen Huang

National Chung Hsing University - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

Taichung, Taiwan
China

Michael McAleer

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute ( email )

Rotterdam
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute

Rotterdam
Netherlands

University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Tokyo
Japan

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