Uncertainty of Outcome, Match Quality and Television Viewership of NPC Rugby Matches

Abstract

This paper investigates whether uncertainty of contest outcome and match quality matter to television viewers of New Zealand National Provincial Championship (NPC) rugby matches. To date, nearly all uncertainty of outcome studies have focused on live match attendance. Furthermore, these studies often fail to account for quality effects. Using ratings data from a New Zealand commercial television channel, we estimate a demand function for broadcast First Division NPC games, which is specified in terms of outcome uncertainty, measures of contest quality, and several control variables. We find, at best, only weak evidence to support the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. However, we do find that quality matters strongly to fans. Further, our results indicate that factors such as viewers' affinity towards the competing teams, the importance of the game to the teams' prospects of making the championship playoffs, households' ability to meet pay-TV subscription charges, the timing of broadcasts, the number of games scheduled on match day, the availability of close sporting substitutes on television, and the spectacle element of matches are significant drivers of audienceship.

Keywords: Uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, match quality, demand for sport, rugby

JEL Classification: C01, C13, C23, D12, L82, L83