Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market

60 Pages Posted: 30 Jun 2009 Last revised: 16 Apr 2023

See all articles by Loren Brandt

Loren Brandt

University of Toronto - Department of Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Aloysius Siow

University of Toronto - Department of Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Carl J. Vogel

NERA Economic Consulting

Abstract

This paper provides non-parametric estimates of the total effects of famine in China on marital behavior of famine affected cohorts in rural areas of Sichuan and Anhui. The reduced form estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects, two important components of equilibrium marital behavior. Next the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market to decomposed observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects. The structural estimates show that the famine reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine-born cohort. The conclusion is that the small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine born cohort are due to a significant decline in marital attractiveness.

Keywords: marriage market, famine

JEL Classification: J12

Suggested Citation

Brandt, Loren and Siow, Aloysius and Vogel, Carl J., Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market. IZA Discussion Paper No. 4243, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1426730 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1426730

Loren Brandt (Contact Author)

University of Toronto - Department of Economics ( email )

150 St. George Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G7
Canada
416-978-4442 (Phone)
416-978-6713 (Fax)

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Aloysius Siow

University of Toronto - Department of Economics ( email )

150 St. George Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G7
Canada
416-978-4139 (Phone)
416-978-6713 (Fax)

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Carl J. Vogel

NERA Economic Consulting ( email )

50 Main Street, 14th Floor
White Plains, NY 10606
United States

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