The Structure of Evolving US Scientific Opinion on Climate Change and its Potential Consequences

Abstract

Two elite surveys of members of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union conducted by the Gallup Organization in 1991 and Harris Interactive in 2007 reveal that the vast majority of climate scientists in a variety of fields have come to believe that human-induced global warming is occurring and that it poses a significant threat to the planet in the future. Multivariate analysis of the 2007 survey reveals that the scientists who foresee the most severe future global consequences are younger scientists, those who work in colleges and universities and those most likely to believe that researchers understand the process of climate change relatively well.

Keywords: science, climate change, elite survey, expert opinion