How Does Programa Familias Guardabosques Affect Criminality? (Impacto del programa familia guardabosques sobre la criminalidad)

Abstract

There is a double-causality relationship between narcotraffic and violence in Colombia. This paper proposes a theoretical dynamic portfolio model on criminal activity, that explains the retroalimentation process between these two phenomena through criminality traps, resulting from low levels of human and social capital. Policies aiming at resolving these traps should have an impact not only on narcotraffic, but also on violence, in order to be effective. Different economic evaluations give evidence supporting the efficiency of alternative development in diminishing narcotraffic. This paper studies the effect that the colombian program of alternative development Familias Guardabosques (Forest Ranger Families) has had on violence. Results show that the affiliation to the program diminishes the homicide rate on a municipal level in its first two stages, while the effect has no significance in the program’s stages III and IV, when the economic incentive delivered to the families diminishes.

Keywords: Coca, Colombia, alternative development, criminality, human capital, social capital, Programa Familias Guardabosques (Forest Ranger Families)

JEL Classification: K42, D19, H53