Statistical Evaluation of Biofuel Role in Land Use Change
Posted: 13 Nov 2009 Last revised: 22 Mar 2015
Date Written: November 11, 2009
Abstract
We investigate the effect of biofuels on land use change through a case study of U.S. corn production. Currently, agricultural models are used to estimate the effect of biofuel production on crop production and, correspondingly, land use change. As biofuel production grows, the models can potentially be validated with statistical analysis of changes in crop production. Determination of the influence of biofuel production on other uses of the biofuel feedstock - such as for food or animal feed - cannot be evaluated with standard statistical methods because the uses of an agricultural crop are constrained: total crop use is always the sum of the constituents. We develop a general method for these compositional distributions, and apply this method to determine competition between biofuel feedstock production and other uses of the same feedstock. We find evidence of competition among corn yield constituents, particularly with respect to ethanol production.
Keywords: Land Use, Biofuel, Ethanol, Competition, Dependency, Empirical Copula, Compositional Data
JEL Classification: N50, O13, Q20, C14, C15
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