Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

58 Pages Posted: 24 Nov 2009

See all articles by Charles Freedman

Charles Freedman

Government of Canada - Bank of Canada; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Michal Andrle

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Danny Hermawan

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Roberto Garcia-Saltos

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Haris Munandar

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Economics; Tinbergen Institute

Date Written: October 2009

Abstract

This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

Keywords: Economic growth, Economic models, Emerging markets, External shocks, Indonesia, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy

Suggested Citation

Freedman, Charles and Andrle, Michal and Hermawan, Danny and Garcia-Saltos, Roberto and Munandar, Haris, Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model (October 2009). IMF Working Paper No. 09/253, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1512258

Charles Freedman (Contact Author)

Government of Canada - Bank of Canada ( email )

234 Wellington Street
Ontario, Ontario K1A 0G9
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Michal Andrle

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Danny Hermawan

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Roberto Garcia-Saltos

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Haris Munandar

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands

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