Socio-Markal (Somarkal): First Modeling Attempts in the Nyon Residential and Commercial Sectors Taking into Account Behavioural Uncertainties

Abstract

There is no doubt that the current century is an era of environmental awareness which will require meeting the growing demands by means of a set of generating technologies, while minimising Greenhouse Gas emissions. Provided that technologies alone could not solve the problem, we have integrated the sociological dimension, represented by the potentially powerful resource for energy conservation that exists in the ability of consumers to change their behaviour. This study aims at proposing a new MARKAL framework that would take into account consumers’ technological improvements and behavioural changes minimizing carbon dioxide emissions and encouraging rational use of energy. As opposed to the traditional MARKAL framework based on technical and economic considerations, the SOMARKAL model integrates technological, economic and behavioural contributions to the environment. Essentially, the conceptual aspects of the SOMARKAL will be presented. Based on this new MARKAL formulation, we will simulate the possible contribution of awareness campaigns in triggering energy consumption behavioural changes and possibilities of technology switch, in the residential area of the city of Nyon (Switzerland), for the period 2005-2025, using ANSWER, the IEA’s platform. The main focus is on lighting technologies. Three fictitious scenarios were produced, referring to three possible penetration rates of low consumption lighting technologies.

Keywords: Energy consumption, Energy savings, Energy efficiency, Residiential lighting, Behaviour change, Sociological surveys, MARKAL

JEL Classification: Q20, Q4, D8, C9, C8, C6