Forecasting Financial Distress by the Semiparametric Logistic Scoring

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting financial distress models named the logistic mixed scoring and the semi parametric logistic scoring. Altman scoring variables are used to predict financial situation of Tunisian firms. First, the mixed logistic scoring is applied in order to detect inobservable heterogeneity. Then, the semi parametric logistic scoring is established by the careful examination of the functional relationship between the explanatory variables and the probability of the distress. The proposed semi parametric model has a better discriminatory power and a predictive performance.

Keywords: Altman model, Logistic mixed distress scoring, Semiparametric logistic distress scoring, ROC

JEL Classification: C140, G170