Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

29 Pages Posted: 23 Feb 2010

See all articles by Michela Catenacci

Michela Catenacci

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Carlo Giupponi

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Date Written: February 22, 2010

Abstract

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.

Keywords: Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty

JEL Classification: Q54

Suggested Citation

Catenacci, Michela and Giupponi, Carlo, Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies (February 22, 2010). FEEM Working Paper No. 7.2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1557088 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1557088

Michela Catenacci (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Carlo Giupponi

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Dipartimento di Economia ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
Italy

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