Capital Flows in a Transitional Economy and the Sterilization Dilemma: The Hungarian Experience, 1992-97

Abstract

This paper evaluates Hungary's dilemma with sterilization in the context of the record of countries that have experienced similar capital inflow episodes, e.g., Latin America and Asia. The study focuses on the short-run impact of sterilization on monetary policy. The empirical results indicate that sterilized interventions by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) did not neutralize capital flows until possibly the middle of 1995, following a change in government and, more significantly, a change in exchange rate regimes. Indeed, it appears that monetary policy was overly restrictive and that, for a time, the NBH overcompensated for the inflows of capital.

JEL Classification: E58, F32