Model for Projections and Simulations of the Brazilian Economy

Institute for Applied Economic Research Working Paper No. 619

77 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 1999

See all articles by Eustáquio José Reis

Eustáquio José Reis

IPEA - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA)

Alexandre Samy de Castro

IPEA - Institute of Applied Economic Research

José Luiz Rossi Júnior

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC)

Emerson Rildo de Araujo

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA)

Date Written: January 1999

Abstract

This paper presents the latest version of the annual econometric model for the Brazilian economy developed by the Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Modelling (Gamma) at IPEA/DIPES. The model is designed to make medium run projections and policy simulations. The specification of the model is basically Keynesian. Estimation features include the use of various time series methods, such as FIML (full information maximum likelihood) cointegration analysis and time varying parameters, besides OLS and instrumental variables estimation. In general, the development of the model's equations has explicitly tried to ensure desirable long-run properties as well as reasonable short-run dynamics.

JEL Classification: C5

Suggested Citation

Reis, Eustáquio José and Freitas de Hollanda Cavalcanti, Marco Antonio and Samy de Castro, Alexandre and Rossi Júnior, José Luiz and Rildo de Araujo, Emerson, Model for Projections and Simulations of the Brazilian Economy (January 1999). Institute for Applied Economic Research Working Paper No. 619, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=159709 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.159709

Eustáquio José Reis (Contact Author)

IPEA - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Av. Pres. Antonio Carlos , 51 - 17 andar
Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20.020-010
Brazil
+55 21 35158680 (Phone)
+55 21 35158615 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.nemsis.org.br

Marco Antonio Freitas de Hollanda Cavalcanti

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) ( email )

Av. Presidente Antonio Carlos 51
17.andar
RJ 20020-010 Rio de Janeiro
Brazil
+55 21 3804-8120 (Phone)
+55 21 3804-8115/8920 (Fax)

Alexandre Samy de Castro

IPEA - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Av. Pres. Antonio Carlos , 51 - 17 andar
Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 20020-010
Brazil
+55 21 3515 8679 (Phone)

José Luiz Rossi Júnior

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC) ( email )

Av. Presidente Antonio Carlos 51
10 Andar Centro
Rio de Janeiro RJ 20020-010
Brazil

Emerson Rildo de Araujo

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA)

Av. Pres. Antonio Carlos , 51 - 17 andar
Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 20020-010
Brazil

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