Do We Follow Others When We Should Outside the Lab? Evidence from the AP Top 25

Stone, Daniel F.; Zafar, Basit

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1628136

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Do We Follow Others When We Should Outside the Lab? Evidence from the AP Top 25

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Forthcoming

34 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2010 Last revised: 16 Sep 2013

See all articles by Daniel F. Stone

Daniel F. Stone

Bowdoin College - Department of Economics

Basit Zafar

Arizona State University

Date Written: June 1, 2012

Abstract

We use data from the Associated Press U.S. college football poll to analyze the ex-post optimality of social learning in a non-lab setting. The poll is a weekly subjective ranking of the top 25 teams, voted on by over 60 sports journalists. The aggregate ranks are publicly observable each week before voters update their personal ranks, so voters can potentially learn from their peers. Our results indicate that, while voters do learn from their peers to some extent, the informativeness of peer ranks appears to be under-valued.

Keywords: Social Learning, Conformity, Herding, Peers, Networks

JEL Classification: D80, D83, D84

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Stone, Daniel F. and Zafar, Basit, Do We Follow Others When We Should Outside the Lab? Evidence from the AP Top 25 (June 1, 2012). Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1628136 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1628136