How Beliefs About HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi, Fifth Version

56 Pages Posted: 15 Jul 2010

See all articles by Aureo de Paula

Aureo de Paula

University College London - Department of Economics

Gil Shapira

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics

Petra Todd

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: July 14, 2010

Abstract

This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual behavior using data on married males living in Malawi. Risky behavior is measured as the propensity to engage in extramarital affairs. The empirical analysis is based on panel surveys for years 2006 and 2008 from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP). Beliefs vary significantly over time in the data, in part because of HIV testing and informational campaigns. We estimate the effect of beliefs about own HIV status on risky behavior using a panel data estimator developed by Arellano and Carrasco (2003), which accommodates unobserved heterogeneity as well as belief endogeneity arising from the dependence of current beliefs on lagged behaviors. We find that beliefs are an important determinant of risky behavior, with downward revisions in the belief of being HIV positive increasing risky behavior and upward revisions decreasing it. We modify Arellano and Carrasco’s (2003) estimator to allow for underreporting of affairs and find the estimates to be relatively robust to underreporting. Using our estimates and a prototypical epidemiological model of disease transmission, we show that making individuals better informed about their HIV status, either by increasing the credibility of test results and/or increasing access to testing, would on net reduce the HIV transmission rate.

Keywords: Beliefs, Malawi, HIV

JEL Classification: I12

Suggested Citation

de Paula, Aureo and Shapira, Gil and Todd, Petra, How Beliefs About HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi, Fifth Version (July 14, 2010). PIER Working Paper No. 10-023, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1639958 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1639958

Aureo De Paula (Contact Author)

University College London - Department of Economics ( email )

Gower Street
London WC1E 6BT, WC1E 6BT
United Kingdom

Gil Shapira

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
133 South 36th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States

Petra Todd

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
133 South 36th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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