Premature Elections and Voter Perceptions

20 Pages Posted: 19 Jul 2010 Last revised: 1 Sep 2010

See all articles by Neil Visalvanich

Neil Visalvanich

Durham University - School of Government and International Affairs

Date Written: August 28, 2010

Abstract

An emerging area of research in parliamentary studies has been parliamentary dissolution and election timing. While much of the literature has focused on the circumstances under which dissolution occurs, not much research has been done on the effects of election timing, especially premature elections. This paper seeks to explore premature election timing, specifically examining its effect on voter perceptions of government. Using a selected sample of parliamentary democracies, and an event studies regression analysis, I hypothesize that early and unexpected elections will have an adverse effect on voter perception of governmental competence and, as a result, we should see a decline in consumer confidence. This should be reflected in significant volatility in stock prices. I find that the more time is left in a parliamentary term, the stronger the effect on stock prices is, which is reflected in increased stock market volatility.

Keywords: Elections, Parliament

Suggested Citation

Visalvanich, Neil, Premature Elections and Voter Perceptions (August 28, 2010). APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1642933

Neil Visalvanich (Contact Author)

Durham University - School of Government and International Affairs ( email )

Durham, DH1 3HP
United Kingdom

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