Is the New Keynesian IS Curve Structural?
47 Pages Posted: 25 Aug 2010
Date Written: July 23, 2010
Abstract
There is already a small literature emphasising the empirical failure of the New Keynesian IS curve, but it is not yet known if this failure reflects empirical problems associated with small samples or is rather a structural weakness of the underlying model. To address this question, in this paper I estimate the New Keynesian IS curve for output and consumption and several possible extensions on panel data from 22 OECD countries over 40 years of data. I also evaluate whether the key parameters of the IS curve change according to countries' economic and financial structure. The main finding is that output and consumption are mainly forward looking, and this is a very robust feature of the data. At the same time, I find little evidence in favour of the traditional specification where the real interest rate enters with a negative sign due to intertemporal substitution; on the contrary, it is typically either insignificant or wrongly signed. Overall, I conclude that the New Keynesian IS curve, at least in its most common formulations, is not structural and is overwhelmingly rejected by the data.
Keywords: IS curve, New Keynesian model, panel data, Instrumental variables
JEL Classification: E21, E44, E52
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility
By Ben S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler
-
Asset Prices, Financial and Monetary Stability: Exploring the Nexus
-
Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy
By Michael D. Bordo and Olivier Jeanne
-
Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy
By Michael D. Bordo and Olivier Jeanne
-
Whither Monetary and Financial Stability? The Implications of Evolving Policy Regimes
-
U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy
-
Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008
By Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor
-
Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008
By Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor
-
Securing Sustainable Price Stability: Should Credit Come Back from the Wilderness?