Forecasting Volatility in the Presence of Model Instability
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp. 221–237, 2010
Posted: 25 Aug 2010
Date Written: August 23, 2010
Abstract
Recent advances in financial econometrics have allowed for the construction of efficient ex post measures of daily volatility. This paper investigates the importance of instability in models of realised volatility and their corresponding forecasts. Testing for model instability is conducted with a subsampling method. We show that removing structurally unstable data of a short duration has a negligible impact on the accuracy of conditional mean forecasts of volatility. In contrast, it does provide a substantial improvement in a model’s forecast density of volatility. In addition, the forecasting performance improves, often dramatically, when we evaluate models on structurally stable data.
Keywords: high-frequency data, integrated volatility, realised volatility
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