An Economic Model of Amniocentesis Choice

44 Pages Posted: 18 Sep 2010

See all articles by Eduardo Fajnzylber

Eduardo Fajnzylber

Universidad Adolfo Ibañez

Seth G. Sanders

Duke University

V. Joseph Hotz

Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 2010

Abstract

Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders; for younger women, such tests are discouraged since they can cause a miscarriage. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a miscarriage is constant while genetic disorders rise over a woman’s reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing – being able to terminate a fetus with a genetic disorder – rises with maternal age. We argue that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing rise with age, so do the costs. While undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of miscarriage of a healthy fetus, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

Keywords: Amniocentesis, Pregnancy, Miscarriage, Family Planning, Life Cycle

Suggested Citation

Fajnzylber, Eduardo and Sanders, Seth G. and Hotz, V. Joseph, An Economic Model of Amniocentesis Choice (August 2010). Economic Research Initiatives at Duke Working Paper No. 65, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1678134 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1678134

Eduardo Fajnzylber (Contact Author)

Universidad Adolfo Ibañez ( email )

Diagonal Las Torres 2640 Peñaleón
Presidente Errázuriz 3485 Las Condes
Santiago, 794-1169
Chile

Seth G. Sanders

Duke University ( email )

100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

V. Joseph Hotz

Duke University ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708
United States
919-660-1841 (Phone)
919-684-8974 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.duke.edu/~vjh3

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
70
Abstract Views
1,436
Rank
479,249
PlumX Metrics