Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms as Forecasting Tools: A Case Study on German Regions

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Vol. 35, No. 4, 2008

48 Pages Posted: 19 Sep 2010 Last revised: 9 Jul 2020

See all articles by Roberto Patuelli

Roberto Patuelli

University of Bologna - Department of Economics

Peter Nijkamp

VU University of Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics; Tinbergen Institute

Simonetta Longhi

University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Tinbergen Institute

Aura Reggiani

University of Bologna - Department of Economics

Date Written: May 16, 2006

Abstract

This paper develops and applies neural network (NN) models to forecast regional employment patterns in Germany. Computer-aided optimization tools that imitate natural biological evolution to find the solution that best fits the given case (namely, genetic algorithms, GAs) are also used to detect the best NN structure. GA techniques are compared with more ‘traditional’ techniques which require the supervision of experienced analysts. We test the performance of these techniques on a panel of 439 districts in West and East Germany. Since the West and East data sets have different time spans, the models are estimated separately for West and East Germany. The results show that the West and East NN models perform with different degrees of precision, mainly because of the different time spans of the two data sets. Automatic techniques for the choice of the NN architecture do not seem to outperform selection procedures based on the supervision of expert analysts.

Suggested Citation

Patuelli, Roberto and Nijkamp, Peter and Longhi, Simonetta and Reggiani, Aura, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms as Forecasting Tools: A Case Study on German Regions (May 16, 2006). Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Vol. 35, No. 4, 2008, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1679292

Roberto Patuelli (Contact Author)

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

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Peter Nijkamp

VU University of Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics ( email )

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Netherlands
+31 20 4446091 (Phone)
+31 20 4445611 (Fax)

Tinbergen Institute

Gustav Mahlerplein 117
Amsterdam, 1082 MS
Netherlands

Simonetta Longhi

University of Essex - Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) ( email )

Wivenhoe Park
Colchester CO4 3SQ
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Tinbergen Institute ( email )

Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands

Aura Reggiani

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli, 2
Bologna, 40126
Italy

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