The Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA): A Revision

84 Pages Posted: 21 Oct 2010

See all articles by Olivier Darné

Olivier Darné

University of Nantes - Faculty of Business and Economics

Véronique Brunhes-Lesage

Banque de France

Date Written: July 1, 2007

Abstract

This paper proposes new bridge equations for the Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) published by the Banque de France. The MIBA is a forecasting tool for the quarterly GDP growth in France both for the current quarter and the next quarter, originally based on the surveys in the industrial sector published in the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) conducted by the Banque de France. Two improvements are suggested: first, from a technical viewpoint, we use an automatic model selection procedure which brings a robust, clear and systematic framework for selecting variables; second, from a modelling viewpoint, we take into account the business surveys in the services sector published by the Banque de France. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated.

Note: Downloadable document is in French.

Keywords: Conjunctural analysis, GDP forecasting, bridge equations, business surveys

JEL Classification: C22, C42, C53

Suggested Citation

Darné, Olivier and Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique, The Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA): A Revision (July 1, 2007). Banque de France Working Paper No. 171, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1694503 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1694503

Olivier Darné (Contact Author)

University of Nantes - Faculty of Business and Economics ( email )

Nantes
France

Véronique Brunhes-Lesage

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

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