How Risky is Pension Wealth?

Abstract

Using a representative sample of Italian investors, we estimate the risk associated with social security benefits by eliciting for each individual the subjective distribution of the replacement rate as a summary indicator of social security wealth. Pension risk varies across individuals in a way that is consistent with what one can expect a priori, due to observable heterogeneity in information sets and in the way that people with different characteristics are affected by current pension schemes. In particular, individuals a long way from retirement and who thus face more career uncertainty report more subjective pension risk. We also find that individuals who report higher pension risk are more likely to enroll in pension funds and health insurance plans.

Keywords: pension risk, subjective probabilities

JEL Classification: H55, E21