Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap

26 Pages Posted: 14 Feb 2011

See all articles by Wojciech S. Maliszewski

Wojciech S. Maliszewski

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics

Date Written: June 2010

Abstract

The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.

Suggested Citation

Maliszewski, Wojciech S., Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap (June 2010). IMF Working Paper No. 10/149, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1760352

Wojciech S. Maliszewski (Contact Author)

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

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