Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

18 Pages Posted: 16 Mar 2011

See all articles by Carlos Bozzoli

Carlos Bozzoli

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops; ISDC - International Security and Development Center; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Tony Muhumuza

United Nations Development Programme

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 14, 2011

Abstract

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Keywords: Conflict, Expectations, War, Welfare

JEL Classification: D84, H56, O10

Suggested Citation

Bozzoli, Carlos and Brück, Tilman and Muhumuza, Tony, Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda (February 14, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1785436 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1785436

Carlos Bozzoli (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops ( email )

Theodor-Echtermeyer-Str. 1
Grossbeeren, 14979
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.igzev.de

ISDC - International Security and Development Center ( email )

Friedrichstr. 88
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.isd-center.org

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Tony Muhumuza

United Nations Development Programme ( email )

Port Louis, 10117
Mauritius

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