Long Memory Affine Term Structure Models
61 Pages Posted: 21 Mar 2011 Last revised: 27 Aug 2017
Date Written: June 23, 2015
Abstract
We develop a Gaussian discrete time essentially affine term structure model with long memory state variables. This feature reconciles the strong persistence observed in nominal yields and inflation with the theoretical implications of affine models, especially for long maturities. We characterise in closed-form the dynamic and cross-sectional implications of long memory for our model. We explain how long memory can naturally arise within the term structure of interest rates, providing a theoretical underpinning for our model. Despite the infinite-dimensional structure that long memory implies, we show how to cast the model in state space and estimate it by maximum likelihood. An empirical application of our model is presented.
Keywords: Term structure, long memory, no arbitrage, state space
JEL Classification: G12, C58, C32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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